Six games to go and not surprisingly the relegation picture has changed quite significantly since my first look at the run-in. Four games ago I believed that eight sides were involved in the relegation battle. Of those teams, I was bold enough to condemn both Wigan and West Brom to the drop, being undecided about the third club who may join them in the Championship. While Wigan are very much still involved - indeed they currently sit rock bottom - West Brom, no doubt just to spite me, have confounded all expectations and probably secured safety with half a dozen games still to go.
Another team I'd factored into my original analysis was Fulham but a few decent results, including a win over the Seasiders, has seen them open up a bit of a gap to the bottom three. This leaves six sides who I believe will be battling between themselves to escape relegation. That's not to say a different side will not plunge into the mix, as anyone from Newcastle (currently 9th) down may still require the odd point here and there to survive, but you'd think it would take a really poor run of results for one of them to sink.
As we approach the so-called business end of the season, it's time to reflect on the past month and look forward to what the end of the season has in store. In the last periodic review, I questioned whether, as the media were indicating, 'Pool were on a slippery slope towards danger. Going into February Blackpool were in 12th position on 28 points with a six point gap on the relegation zone. I posited that defeats in both of the 'six pointers' against West Ham and Wolves would be the worst case scenario, but whilst this obviously has not helped the Seasiders' league standing, a win and a draw from the month did at least halt the slide and has ensured 'Pool still have a cushion of four points on the bottom three.
As we enter February on the back of the worst run of the season, the games become ever more crucial for Blackpool. In the last mini-review on 3rd January I'd surmised that we were ahead of the game in terms of the number of points on the board and felt that even as few as five points would be a good return from the rest of the January fixtures against Birmingham, Liverpool, West Brom, Sunderland and Man Utd. After all, with four of those matches at home, five points would be the minimum the Seasiders would chalk up, right? Wrong.
The best I was possibly expecting was six points, and even that looked difficult. More importantly I was hoping 'Pool would avoid a confidence-bashing run of defeats. In the end, with all three home games postponed because of the weather it was an incredible effort to win two of the three surviving matches, with 'Pool nearly taking a share of the spoils at Eastlands.
Time for another periodic overview of the season so far. Towards the end of October, I wrote an article about how Blackpool's season was panning out after the first eight league games. The mood at that time was not quite as buoyant as it had after the first four games, but the consensus was that 'Pool were performing above expectations (admittedly not too hard).
Examining the next seven matches (Birmingham until Bolton) I had identified this as a crucial period in the season. Compared with the opening fixtures, many of these should have been seen winnable, and so it was vital that points were picked up in this period. I surmised that reaching 20 points or more would be a great return, and survival would look more than achievable. While not quite reaching that target, 'Pool fell only one point short and if they can replicate this points tally over the 38 games, a mid-table finish is on the cards.
Just over a month ago, I wrote a post posing the question of whether Blackpool fans were getting carried away with the start to the season. At that point in time 'Pool were occupying 4th place in the league, with two wins and a draw to their name following the opening four fixtures. The only defeat, while a heavy one, came away at Arsenal - hardly a disgrace. I suggested that the next four games would perhaps be more challenging, and that we could draw more accurate conclusions following these games.
Featuring three of the big name clubs (whether Liverpool deserve that accolade is an argument for another time) I thought that if the Seasiders could rack up more than four points from these fixtures, the euphoria could be justified. As it happens, 'Pool only picked up three points. It's still a respectable haul and save for the late, late goal conceded against Blackburn, and some dubious refereeing decisions on Sunday, that tally could have been a few points higher.
Eight games in then, and 10 points on the board. Even the most optimistic of Blackpool fans would surely have settled for that at the start of the season, especially when you consider there have only been three home games, and the away games have included trips to Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool. In fact, some of the so-called experts in the national media were of the opinion that 'Pool would struggle to reach double figures all season. Derby County's record looks set to remain for at least another year.
Looking forward, what do the next batch of games hold in store for the Seasiders? We are now going into a period of seven games that could be key to 'Pool's season. Away trips to Birmingham, Aston Villa, West Ham and Bolton aren't the most daunting the Premier League has to offer, while Ian Holloway will be eager to start picking up points at Bloomfield Road with the visits of West Brom, Everton and Wolves next in line. Doubling the current points total after these games appears to be a realistic target, whereby 20 points from the opening 15 games would see Blackpool well on the way to survival.
After 15 games the home / away imbalance will remain in place, with the Seasiders still only having played 6 matches on the Fylde Coast. The number of points picked up at home so far has been the major disappointment, even if performances have warranted more. If 'Pool can get to 20 points, or dare I say more, after playing 9 of the first 15 away from home, you'd have to start to believe that another miracle season is upon us.
This is the sight most Blackpool fans have been treasuring for the last week. There we are in a Champions League spot after four games. Sitting pretty. Riding high. But are we as fans making too much of this? Are expectations being raised a little too high? Have we become too big for our boots?
Well, on the one hand 'Pool's start is a massive stick with which to beat the pundits. The very same pundits who wrote the Seasiders off at the start of the season, many of whom believed Blackpool could enter the record books as the worst Premier League team of all time. On a meagre budget, the team are performing beyond all belief and is allowing us to stick two fingers up at the establishment who seem loathed to even see Blackpool in this league.
Most of those pundits remain unconvinced in Blackpool's survival chance, in spite of the start that has been made. It is easy to scoff at this, labelling them ignorant and stubborn. After all, they had us relegated before the season had even started, yet there we are after four games in a top four spot. Maybe though, we should place a little more value in their opinions. The comparisons to Burnley and Hull might be lazy, but they could well be justified. Blackpool are something of an unknown quantity to most sides in the top flight, but this will surely not endure all season.
Another point worth considering is the teams encountered thus far. Arsenal aside, the other fixtures have been relatively kind by Premier League standards. The next four games seem much trickier, as 'Pool face the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City, with a home match against Blackburn the only realistic opportunity to put points on the board. Where Blackpool stand after these games may be a more accurate indication of how the season will pan out. Any more than four points from these matches may give some substance to the current euphoria surrounding Bloomfield Road.
So, am I being too downbeat? I should be enjoying the moment, right? Well, I would say that I am revelling in our momentary elevated status, but would also like to temper that with a sense of realism. Football can be a fickle game, and the danger of getting carried away now may result in a feeling of disappointment should a particularly tough run of results be right around the corner.
I'm all for rubbing our success in the doubters' noses, but only when Blackpool have achieved their goals for the season. We are only 1/10th of the way in, and to celebrate now would be premature. I'm delighted to see how the team have acquitted themselves so far, but it's important the fans stick with the club when things get tougher.
And it doesn't get any tougher than Sunday's trip to Stamford Bridge - see you there.
