Seaside Strategy - West Ham United Home

It had been billed in some quarters as a 'must-win' game, and while not quite that crucial, the home defeat to West Ham last night is a major set-back. With four straight defeats, three of those at Bloomfield Road, 'Pool now find themselves unerringly close to the bottom three. A win would have seen the Seasiders go 10 points clear of West Ham, instead of the four point gap that now exists. It's nothing to be ashamed of necessarily - after all some pundits would have had you believe 'Pool would have been all but relegated by this point - but from what appeared to be building up to a comfortable mid-table finish, Ian Holloway's men are now in a relegation fight.

Seaside Strategy - Aston Villa Away

With all the hoo-hah about team selection hopefully behind us, I'd like to take a look at how some of the fringe players performed, and whether it's possible for them to oust their teammates on a more regular basis.

Three players who had perhaps been closest to breaking into the starting XI prior to the game at Villa Park were David Carney, Ludovic Sylvestre and Matt Phillips. Did they put in a good enough shift to warrant keeping their places for the game against West Ham tomorrow, or are they likely to be back on the bench in another all-change approach from Ian Holloway?

In order to compare performances, I have used statistics from those who they replaced from the Manchester City game - that match also ending 3-2 being possibly the most suitable comparison.

Looking at Carney first, can he hope to keep Stephen Crainey out of the side? Crainey has drawn criticism for some of his performances this season, most noticeably away at Arsenal, but more often than not he has bounced back with a solid performance, making it hard for Holloway to drop him. Carney was brought in on deadline day as back-up for Crainey, but despite his experience with the Australian national side, has had to bide his time.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

The easiest thing to notice is just how much further up the pitch Crainey plays. Not only that, but Crainey also tries to contribute with assists, providing crosses on a number of occasions, while Carney failed to make one cross all game - his only passes into the Villa box coming from corners. This is fairly surprising, as Carney has played large spells of his career as a midfielder, giving the expectation that he would get forward more often than he did at Villa Park.

What, then, of Ludovic Sylvestre? I've chosen to compare his statistics against those of Charlie Adam. With Adam's future at Blackpool in doubt beyond January, many will be hoping that the former Barcelona trainee can step into his shoes. Sylvestre's performance was one of the highlights against Aston Villa, as he looked composed in possession and moved the ball neatly. He did tire as the game wore on, being visibly slow to track back in the latter stages, but that is only to be expected with so few first team minutes under his belt. What do the stats say about Sylvestre though? Can he hold a torch to Adam?

 by Guardian Chalkboards

Sylvestre made a particularly large number of passes, completing 61 of them successfully. In terms of sheer quantity, few Blackpool players have made quite so many passes in a single game this campaign. What about the quality of these passes though? Where Adam holds the advantage over Sylvestre is the areas in which he sees the ball. Adam's role is slightly higher up the pitch and thus taking up more dangerous positions in an attacking sense. Sylvestre looks to keep the ball ticking over nicely, but whether he offers the same drive as the 'Pool skipper remains to be seen.

Last, but not least, let's take a look at the star man from Wednesday night's game, Matt Phillips. When he signed from Wycombe in August, I expected he would be a peripheral figure for much of this season - one for the future, if you like. Even his cameo appearances have caught the eye, including his memorable goal against Blackburn, which should have been enough to earn 'Pool a point. A starting place was long overdue, and nobody took their chance more so than Phillips. For many, he was the most exciting player on the pitch, and of the 10 changes, he is possibly the candidate most likely to stay in the side tomorrow at Upton Park.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

Comparing his performance to Gary Taylor-Fletcher's against Man City, you can see how Phillips helped give the Seasiders real width. Whereas GTF has a tendency to drift towards the centre of the pitch, Phillips ran at the full-back time and time again. He briefly switched to the left at one point in the first half, but even then he kept wide, rarely coming inside and making the 'Pool attack narrow. Perhaps most impressive was Phillips determination to get to the byline and deliver a cross. He created a number of chances doing this, which with some better finishing from Marlon Harewood, could have resulted in a more positive result. How long Phillips can maintain the high standards he has set himself is uncertain, but he is already establishing himself as a player of real quality.

Looking forward to tomorrow, Holloway has to decide which players come back in, and which ones drop out. I doubt there'll be another 10 changes, but you have to wonder if Carney and Sylvestre have done enough to keep out Crainey and Adam. Only fatigue or injury is likely to prevent Matt Phillips adding to his first Premier League start, and I'm hoping I'll have plenty more to write about the highly-exciting prospect after the game against West Ham.

4-2-1-3, 4-3-3 or Something Else?

Last season the 4-3-3 formation employed by Ian Holloway was a revelation. Most teams faced in the Championship lined up in the traditional, if rapidly unfashionable, 4-4-2. While it took some time to get used to, once the players were familiar with the system most opponents struggled to cope with the way in which 'Pool attacked and the end of season form helped propel the Seasiders into the Premier League.

Despite the success under this system, Holloway opted to tweak the formation and instead play a 4-2-1-3 for the opening game at Wigan, sticking with this formation for every game aside from the failed experiment at Chelsea. This was perhaps forced due to Keith Southern's injury ruling him out of the first four weeks of the season - it's hard to imagine that Southern would have been dropped for Elliot Grandin if he had been fit.

Grandin has since dropped out of the side periodically however, with Southern yet to start in the Premier League. With the former Marseille player benched, it has been down to Gary Taylor-Fletcher to occupy the role behind the front three on two occasions, with little success - both games ended in defeat, to Blackburn and Birmingham respectively. Taylor-Fletcher has handled the step up to the top flight very well in my opinion, but has been noticeably less effective when playing in the more withdrawn role.

Below you can see how 'Pool lined up against Birmingham on Saturday.

 

As I wrote on Sunday, Marlon Harewood struggled out on the right, with the side often being overrun when defending. Following two disappointing results, it appears likely that Holloway may now choose to change not only personnel, but the system too. Ian Holloway has come out and said that different players may be given a chance, mentioning Southern and Ludovic Sylvestre among others. It doesn't take a genius to work out that a place in the starting XI for Southern or Sylvestre would mean a different formation, as neither David Vaughan nor Charlie Adam are likely to be dropped.

See the below diagram for how I expect Holloway to set out his side against West Brom.

It seems inevitable that Keith Southern will now get his first Premier League start and I can see him being reunited with his midfield partners from last season, Vaughan and Adam. The extra bite that Southern offers may be what the Seasiders require to be more combative on their own pitch. Elsewhere, following impressive cameos from the subs' bench, Matt Phillips could well earn his first start. Phillips' defensive awareness might not be the best just yet, but with Southern tucked in midfield giving the 'Pool backline more protection, it will give Phillips more licence to do what he does best...attack. With a wealth of attacking options at his disposal, Harewood may have to settle for a place on the bench after his disappointing display at St. Andrews, while Luke Varney's strong run in the side may come to an end. DJ Campbell is hard to drop, despite his mini goal drought, and Taylor-Fletcher would be the sole aerial outlet in the above scenario.

Then again, Holloway could throw us all a complete curveball. The manager has done it before, and I certainly wouldn't put it past him again. Sylvestre, Chris Basham and David Carney have all been unlucky not to make an impact since their arrival, and with the promise of changes from Holloway, it may be their chance to shine. Similarly, Dekel Keinan was probably unlucky to be dropped after his performance at Anfield. So many options...who'd be a manager?

Incoming

This post can now be found here: http://measuredprogress.co.uk/opinion/incoming/